Social Security COLA 2026 Projection Rises to 2.7%: Here’s What That Means for Your Benefits
Jana Sanford
Published Aug 14, 2025
Social Security beneficiaries could see a 2.7% Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in 2026, according to the latest forecast from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).
That’s a small uptick from July’s 2.6% projection, driven by new inflation data showing a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) last month.
The official COLA will be announced in October 2025, when the Social Security Administration (SSA) averages inflation rates for July, August, and September using the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers).
How Much Could Your Benefits Increase?
If the July 2025 average Social Security benefit of $1,863.12 is used, a 2.7% COLA would mean:
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Monthly increase: About $50.30
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New average benefit in January 2026: $1,913.42
That’s a modest bump compared to the 2.5% increase received in 2025, and far smaller than the unusually high COLAs during the post-COVID inflation spike.
You might be missing out on benefits! Check what’s available to you here.
Why Some Seniors Are Still Concerned
While any increase is welcome, many retirees feel the COLA doesn’t match their real-world expenses.
TSCL and policy analysts point out that the CPI-W underrepresents costs seniors face most often, including:
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Housing
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Medical care
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Transportation
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Groceries
These four categories make up over 85% of spending for Americans aged 62 and older, and many of these prices remain stubbornly high despite slowing overall inflation.
What’s Next?
The August and September inflation reports will be critical in determining the final COLA.
For now, the 2.7% projection offers seniors an early look at potential benefit changes in 2026.
The SSA will release the final COLA in mid-October 2025, and the adjustment will take effect January 2026.
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